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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2022 15:37:01 GMT -5
Prince HalNot sure if you saw this, but Pete Abraham is tweeting that the Sox have shut down Garrett Whitlock for the season and that he needs some kind of surgery, which will be scheduled for next week. Haven't seen any details onthe nature of the surgery. -M edit to add: looks like some kind of arthroscopic surgery... further update-it's hip surgery. Also Connor Seabold has been called up in his spot, and will make a start this week.
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Post by Prince Hal on Sept 20, 2022 16:34:32 GMT -5
Hadn’t seen this, @mrp , but why am I not surprised by any of this, including using him in a lost season?
Hope he can return. Given the sorry state of next year’s staff, this is a real blow.
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Post by wildfire2099 on Sept 20, 2022 20:24:58 GMT -5
probably not...but for one year with him hitting in front of Devers, that would be pretty magical, I have to say. Definitely not going to happen though.
I wonder if something's going on with what Dave Bush or the other staff are teaching.... multiple guys with hip issues seems a bit odd.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2022 23:05:27 GMT -5
Tonight wasn't the prettiest start by Bello (too many baserunners), but he does seem to be figuring things out and making a strong case to be in the Sox rotation next year.
Brayan Bello’s last 6 starts:
2.67 ERA 30.1 IP 32 K
the first few were ugly and his overall numbers reflect that, but like I said, he seems to have figured things out a bit. He still needs to work on pitch efficiency so he can go longer than 5, but he's hardly the only Sox pitcher that's true of and seems to be an organizational weakness in our pitcher developments process (possibly an unintended consequences of modern sabremetric baseball's obsession with true outcomes of K, BB, HR).
-M
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Post by Prince Hal on Sept 20, 2022 23:25:42 GMT -5
Tonight wasn't the prettiest start by Bello (too many baserunners), but he does seem to be figuring things out and making a strong case to be in the Sox rotation next year. Brayan Bello’s last 6 starts: 2.67 ERA 30.1 IP 32 K the first few were ugly and his overall numbers reflect that, but like I said, he seems to have figured things out a bit. He still needs to work on pitch efficiency so he can go longer than 5, but he's hardly the only Sox pitcher that's true of and seems to be an organizational weakness in our pitcher developments process (possibly an unintended consequences of modern sabremetric baseball's obsession with true outcomes of K, BB, HR). -M Granted it was the Reds, but he faced a bases loaded, nobody out predicament in the second and pitched his way out of it without any loss of composure. I agree that he seems to be a quick learner, especially since he spent virtually no time in Triple A. Agree that he'll be in the rotation, and would not be surprised if he's number three, if only because it may be another patchwork rotation. And congratulations to Aaron Judge for hitting his 60th. Only three AL players have ever hit 60 and they're all Yankees. And he still has 15 games to go. I'd have to give him my MVP vote despite Ohtani's extraordinary feats. No Judge, no playoffs for Yanks. With all Ohtani does, even he can't haul the Angels to mediocrity.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2022 23:39:10 GMT -5
Tonight wasn't the prettiest start by Bello (too many baserunners), but he does seem to be figuring things out and making a strong case to be in the Sox rotation next year. Brayan Bello’s last 6 starts: 2.67 ERA 30.1 IP 32 K the first few were ugly and his overall numbers reflect that, but like I said, he seems to have figured things out a bit. He still needs to work on pitch efficiency so he can go longer than 5, but he's hardly the only Sox pitcher that's true of and seems to be an organizational weakness in our pitcher developments process (possibly an unintended consequences of modern sabremetric baseball's obsession with true outcomes of K, BB, HR). -M Granted it was the Reds, but he faced a bases loaded, nobody out predicament in the second and pitched his way out of it without any loss of composure. I agree that he seems to be a quick learner, especially since he spent virtually no time in Triple A. Agree that he'll be in the rotation, and would not be surprised if he's number three, if only because it may be another patchwork rotation. And congratulations to Aaron Judge for hitting his 60th. Only three AL players have ever hit 60 and they're all Yankees. And he still has 15 games to go. I'd have to give him my MVP vote despite Ohtani's extraordinary feats. No Judge, no playoffs for Yanks. With all Ohtani does, even he can't haul the Angels to mediocrity. I would still vote Ohtani. What Judge has accomplished has rarely been done, but it has been done before. What Ohtani has done in unprecedented. A list of folks who have hit 60 HR and/or won the triple crown is a small list. The list of players who have hit 30+ HR and struck out 200 batters is the same season is empty, it's unprecedented. Ohtani needs to strike out 4 batters in his final couple of starts to be the first do do so ever. Someone will come along eventually and do what Judge did again, and probably even break his record if he sets one. I am not sure we will ever see another season like the one Ohtani has put together this year. I do figure in team standings a bit for MVP consideration, but only a bit* as it is not a team award but an individual award for the player having the best season not the player on a contender having the best season. And an unprecedented accomplishment outweighs a very rare accomplishment for me. Opinions will vary, and mine doesn't out as I don't have an actual vote for MVP. -M *I would consider team standing if and only if two players with near equal accomplishments were in contention for MVP and one played for a contender and one did not as a tie breaker. Baseball is a team game but MVP is an individual honor. No other individual award in the game except manager of the year takes into consideration team performance (and that one does only because team performance is an easy measurement of the manager's performance) so I don't think this individual award should either.
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Post by Prince Hal on Sept 21, 2022 0:01:52 GMT -5
@mrp I could just as easily vote for Ohtani. You raise excellent points. I do part ways, though, because we're choosing the most valuable player, meaning the player most vital to his team's success. I don't see it as an individual award in the same way as I see the Cy Young, for instance, or the Sporting News' Player of the Year Award. In another year, without such an intriguing competition, I'd be happy to give it to Ohtani. I guess he is the one most vital to his team's "success," but as good as he is, he hasn't made the Angels much better than they were without him in previous years. It's like when we vote for the cover contest winner. When I'm stuck, I reconsider the category. If the category asks for a cover featuring horses and I se a couple that I find excellent, I use the category to break the tie. So if the horse isn't as prominent on one cover as it is in the other, I eliminate it. This year, to choose between these two phenomenal seasons, I go with the intent of the award. And remember, I'm a Sox fan. But, man, what Ohtani is doing does leave you gasping. I do wish there were some sort of award to recognize the Player of the Year, for which I would vote for Ohtani happily. And I wont be ticked if he does win the MVP. Remember, I am a Sox fan. As a more knowledgeable stats and sabremetrics guy, do you think he is going to win it?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 0:11:20 GMT -5
@mrp I could just as easily vote for Ohtani. You raise excellent points. I do part ways, though, because we're choosing the most valuable player, meaning the player most vital to his team's success. I don't see it as an individual award in the same way as I see the Cy Young, for instance, or the Sporting News' Player of the Year Award. In another year, without such an intriguing competition, I'd be happy to give it to Ohtani. I guess he is the one most vital to his team's "success," but as good as he is, he hasn't made the Angels much better than they were without him in previous years. It's like when we vote for the cover contest winner. When I'm stuck, I reconsider the category. If the category asks for a cover featuring horses and I se a couple that I find excellent, I use the category to break the tie. So if the horse isn't as prominent on one cover as it is in the other, I eliminate it. This year, to choose between these two phenomenal seasons, I go with the intent of the award. And remember, I'm a Sox fan. But, man, what Ohtani is doing does leave you gasping. I do wish there were some sort of award to recognize the Player of the Year, for which I would vote for Ohtani happily. And I wont be ticked if he does win the MVP. Remember, I am a Sox fan. As a more knowledgeable stats and sabremetrics guy, do you think he is going to win it? I would agree about the team part if it were consistently applied or even in the parameters of the reward as explained to voters, but it's not and it's never been consistently applied, it's always gone to the best player in the league (based on individual stats) not the player who has helped the team win the most (which there is no stat to measure, not even WAR covers that), and there are even voters who outright say that team performance has no bearing on their votes. So if MLB can't be bothered to script it into the award parameters and actual voters don't factor it in to their votes, then it is a de facto individual accomplishment award despite what the name of the award may imply (and imply is all it does, it does not mandate that as part of the consideration that voters should give). I believe their should be 2 separate and distinct MLB sponsored awards-MVP for the actual most valuable player to a team's success (that isn't defined by compiled stats) and an offensive player of the year (named after a MLB great like the Cy Young is, maybe the Hank Aaron awards or the Babe Ruth award or some such). But until such a time as there is, or MLB actually mandates that team success is part of the consideration for the award in its defined parameters and all actual voters give it consideration, it is simply an award for the perceived best player of the year (since hitters, starting pitchers and relievers have all received votes and from winning teams and losing teams). That is the de facto reality of it regardless of what should be, it is what is. -M
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 0:16:15 GMT -5
Further if team performance is factored into the players stats for MVP, then we need a further break down of stats to see how much of the compiled stats actually figured into the outcome of the game and how much was padded stats during garbage team when tems were up or down by a significant margin and had no bearing on the outcome of the games in question. That's the only way you can actually measure how valuable a player was to the team's success.
Hitting a grand slam in the 8th inning when your team is already up by 8 or down by 10 doesn't affect the teams success in the slightest, but those compiled stats are taken into consideration as to who is "most valuable."
-M
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Post by wildfire2099 on Sept 21, 2022 6:22:33 GMT -5
My pretend MVP vote goes to Judge, hands down. It's not the player of the year award, it's the MVP. The Yankees would not be leading the division with out Judge. Where would the Angels be without Otani? probably about the same spot... it they were 4th in the west instead of 3rd, who cares?
Otani is pretty amazing, but it's not doing the Angels any good. Judge likely breaking perhaps THE most hallowed record in baseball, AND possibly winning the triple crown while leading the Yankees to win one of the most competitive divisions in baseball history? No contest in my mind.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 7:11:41 GMT -5
My pretend MVP vote goes to Judge, hands down. It's not the player of the year award, it's the MVP. The Yankees would not be leading the division with out Judge. Where would the Angels be without Otani? probably about the same spot... it they were 4th in the west instead of 3rd, who cares? Otani is pretty amazing, but it's not doing the Angels any good. Judge likely breaking perhaps THE most hallowed record in baseball, AND possibly winning the triple crown while leading the Yankees to win one of the most competitive divisions in baseball history? No contest in my mind. If it's truly most valuable to a team's success, then more starting pitchers like Justin Verlander (again) should be in the conversation and getting votes, but again it's not really about which player was more valuable to their team's success, it's about which player had the most outstanding performance in the season. Pitchers get disregarded most seasons because they have the Cy Young, but again if MVP is really about most valuable to team success that wouldn't be the case. In theory sure, but the reality is the actual practice as MVP votes are given is not about most valuable to team, it's about most outstanding individual performance. It's how you walk the walk, not how you talk the talk that reveals what the award really is. -M
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 8:12:23 GMT -5
Does anyone honestly believe that Aaron Judge would get any less MVP consideration if he had exactly the same stat line and the Yankees were already eliminated from playoff contention?
Let's look at actual MVP winners for the last 10 years and see how much value to team's success matters?
2021 MVPs AL Ohtani-Angels finished 8 games under .500 and were never in contention; NL Bryce Harper Phillies were essentially .500 team and missed the playoffs.
So nobody was more valuable to their team's success than these two or did they just have the best individual seasons?
2020 MVPs (season shortened by COVID) AL Jose Abreu (CWS were the 7th seed Wild Card) NL Freddie Freeman ATL
shortened season limited stat accumulation and more teams made the playoffs than usual, so it's a hard season to draw any conclusions from.
2019 MVPs AL Mike Trout (Angels 18 games under .500) NL Cody Bellinger
again no one in the AL was more valuable to their team than Trout playing for a sub .500 team?
2018 MVPS AL Mookie Betts NL Christian Yelich
both contributors to inning teams
2017 MVPs AL Jose Altuve NL Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton wins playing for a sub .500 non-playoff team; 2nd place vote getter is Joey Votto of the last place Reds
2016 MVPS again Mike Trout of a sub-.500 Angels team in the AL; NL Kris Bryant
2015 AL Josh Donaldson (on a contender) and Bryce Harper of a non-playoff Nationals (2nd place was Paul Goldschmidt of the sub-.500 Diamondbacks)
2014 Trout (hey this the the Angels were actually a contender) in the AL and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers
2013 Miguel Cabrera AL/ McCutchen NL
so yes sometimes the MVP plays on a team that does well (often a byproduct of a player having a great individual season) but there are way too many MVPs from sub-.500 and non-playoff teams for value to teams success to be a real factor for the award. Would Trout be a 3 time MVP is value to team's success actually factored into MVP consideration and voting? And again, unless Judge would lose MVP consideration if the Yankees weren't contenders, their success is irrelevant to his MVP candidacy. The evidence just doesn't bear out that value to the success of the team is a consideration when it comes to actual MVP voting and what the award is actually awarded for.
-M
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Post by Prince Hal on Sept 21, 2022 15:10:47 GMT -5
@mrp and wildfire2099I think that Ohtani would win over Judge if Yanks were mediocre, unless he took the Triple Crown, which would be like the Cabrera situation in 2012. Hell, Andre Dawson won it for a last-place Cubs team. And the great Ernie Banks won two in a row for a couple of other bad Cubs teams. Yeah, it bugs me that the writers often simply make it easier on themselves by ignoring the name and point of the award. (And screw their complaints about a lack of "criteria;" hey, guys, read the frikkin' name aloud and you'll hear what you're supposed to be voting for) That's still no reason for them to disregard the intent of the award. Voting for "Player of the Year" is clearly easier, but I try to evaluate as best as I can which player meant the most to his team's success, as the words "Most Valuable" are inscribed on the award. As I said earlier, I wish they would have a separate POY award (name it for Aaron or Mays or Ruth or whoever) that can be given to say, a Triple Crown winner like Cabrera who really didn't elevate his team despite his achievement. Then it is more of an individual award, like the Cy Young. For that matter, I wish they'd institute a Wilhelm Award (I can just hear the screaming... ) for the relievers. Then MLB could make the criteria specific. Of course, there'll always be controversy, but that's almost always a good thing. Many beers are sold because of controversies. On a sorta/kinda related note, I really wish the NFL would create a Best QB Award (The Otto Graham? Johnny U? Sid Luckman? Montana?) and a separate Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year Award. MVP always, always goes to a QB. If he deserves it, fine, but I'd like to see it be more like the Cy and other high achievers recognized.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2022 18:12:24 GMT -5
@mrp and wildfire2099I think that Ohtani would win over Judge if Yanks were mediocre, unless he took the Triple Crown, which would be like the Cabrera situation in 2012. Hell, Andre Dawson won it for a last-place Cubs team. And the great Ernie Banks won two in a row for a couple of other bad Cubs teams. Yeah, it bugs me that the writers often simply make it easier on themselves by ignoring the name and point of the award. (And screw their complaints about a lack of "criteria;" hey, guys, read the frikkin' name aloud and you'll hear what you're supposed to be voting for) That's still no reason for them to disregard the intent of the award. Voting for "Player of the Year" is clearly easier, but I try to evaluate as best as I can which player meant the most to his team's success, as the words "Most Valuable" are inscribed on the award. As I said earlier, I wish they would have a separate POY award (name it for Aaron or Mays or Ruth or whoever) that can be given to say, a Triple Crown winner like Cabrera who really didn't elevate his team despite his achievement. Then it is more of an individual award, like the Cy Young. For that matter, I wish they'd institute a Wilhelm Award (I can just hear the screaming... ) for the relievers. Then MLB could make the criteria specific. Of course, there'll always be controversy, but that's almost always a good thing. Many beers are sold because of controversies. On a sorta/kinda related note, I really wish the NFL would create a Best QB Award (The Otto Graham? Johnny U? Sid Luckman? Montana?) and a separate Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year Award. MVP always, always goes to a QB. If he deserves it, fine, but I'd like to see it be more like the Cy and other high achievers recognized. For me, even through it's called the Most Valuable Player award, thinking it has anything to do with value to the team's success is just wishful thinking. We hope it's true because we want it to be true, but all evidence is to the contrary, and I refuse to be someone who clings to the truth I want despite the evidence. If the MVP is ever going to have to be about value to the team and not compilation of individual stats there would need to be 2 things-1 an award for best individual achievement for a hitter to balance the Cy Young, and an infrastructure of stats (not WAR which purports to do this but doesn't) that correlate player outcomes to team outcomes to actually show how valuable one player is to his team's success vis-a-vis another player's value to their team's success. BA, HR, RBI, OPS, ERA wins, strikeouts etc. don't actually measure this so cannot be used as a criteria for such an award. And WAR purports to, but values those same stats the same no matter what the situation. A walk off home run generates the same WAR as a solo homerun providing the team's only run in a 13-1 loss. Again I have no issue with either Ohtani or Judge getting the MVP this season, I have an issue with the continued use of value to their team as a rationalization for those choices when the evidence clearly shows that is a myth and not a criteria for who wins the MVP year in and year out. It is awarded to whom the BBWA voters feel had the best individual season regardless of position, role, or success of the team they play for. That's the reality. The myth is value to team (despite the name of the award) and the myth needs to go away or be made an actual reality, but as it stands now, it's a farce. -M
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Post by Prince Hal on Sept 21, 2022 19:32:54 GMT -5
@mrp
I get what you're saying, and it would be interesting if they could come up with a way to quantify each player's value in each game he played, but that would mean that the award would be a fait accompli by the time the season ended, as no voting would be necessary. I agree that this is why MLB needs to better define the MVP and add the other awards we're talking about.
Not sure they could ever come up with an algorithm that could do that. Just tonight Alex Speier was explaining how a guy like Bogaerts is done dirty by the "Expected BA" stat, as it is based partly on "exit velo" (may I never have to type that again). Thus, when Xander or heady players like him see a hole on the right side and simply dunk a quail or shoot a slow grounder into right when the pitcher throws a low outside slider instead of trying to "launch angle" a ball two inches off the ground and strike out, he is actually penalized.
That's illogical, IYAM, and yet this is the kind of stat studied in isolation as a means of judging a player's worth sans truly watching him and seeing how vast a set of talents he has.
And to be honest, in this day and age, even fossils like me who haunt baseball reference for the fun of it can also figure out how many of for example, a player's HRs, hits and RBIs, were just padding a lead or otherwise inconsequential. How hard would that be? Teams distribute far more ridiculous stats.
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