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Post by The Captain on Dec 30, 2018 9:28:17 GMT -5
Been reading a lot this week about how the Democrats can retake the White House in 2020, and I think they are going to have a much tougher time accomplishing that task than it currently appears, even with the ongoing problems within the Trump administration.
The biggest challenge the Democrats face is how to unite its various factions and find a candidate that will energize its entire base. The candidates that appeal to the liberal progressive (and yes, before anyone corrects me, I know that "American liberals" are pretty much middle of the road in Europe, but for sake of brevity and clarity, anyone left of center is going to be referred to herein as a liberal) are folks like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or someone new like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (too young to run for POTUS in 2020, but her Democrat Socialist standing makes her a celebrity among the more activist liberals). However, those folks aren't going to do well in places like Michigan, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, nor are they going to be attractive to Midwesterners (real Midwest, like Kansas or Nebraska, not pseudo-Midwest like OH or PA) because their ideas are too liberal.
On the other hand, a candidate like Beto O'Rourke, who sits just left of the middle and regularly votes across the aisle, is going to be seen as more of the "same old same old" like Hilary Clinton, a DINO who isn't going to push a progressive agenda. This isn't going to get the folks, particularly the anti-establishment crowd, on the West Coast or in New York and New England excited, because they want to push harder to the left to combat the Republican tack to the right.
I firmly believe the Democrats will once again lose the battleground states and make zero inroads into the true Midwest if they pick a more liberal candidate, because the moderates (whether Democrat, Republican, or Independent, like my wife and me, who are fed up with the hardcore conservative shift in the Republican party) will not vote for someone they see as pushing a strong progressive agenda. If they pick someone like O'Rourke (and I'm not saying it has to be him, just someone more moderate), they may have a chance in the battleground states, as well as should still win the West Coast/Northeastern Corridor states, because the progressives there will hold their noses but still vote Democrat regardless, if only to be rid of Trump.
All I can say is, it's going to be an interesting next 22 months.
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Post by Pharozonk on Dec 30, 2018 12:32:04 GMT -5
I firmly believe the Democrats will once again lose the battleground states and make zero inroads into the true Midwest if they pick a more liberal candidate, because the moderates (whether Democrat, Republican, or Independent, like my wife and me, who are fed up with the hardcore conservative shift in the Republican party) will not vote for someone they see as pushing a strong progressive agenda. If they pick someone like O'Rourke (and I'm not saying it has to be him, just someone more moderate), they may have a chance in the battleground states, as well as should still win the West Coast/Northeastern Corridor states, because the progressives there will hold their noses but still vote Democrat regardless, if only to be rid of Trump. That's the thing that the more vocal (online at least) progressive Democrats fail to account for. The vast majority of Democrat voters are moderates/slightly left of center.
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Post by beccabear67 on Dec 30, 2018 16:04:14 GMT -5
If the extremist/absolutist right full of decades of Rush Limbaugh feeding them manipulative half-truths in what's left of the Republican party manages a reaction in the other party to go toward the other extreme, then they have won is how I feel. I'm really disliking people of any kind in the streets chanting, the hats, the bumper stickers, all that junk. Now there are exceptions, I think when AIDS was cutting a swath the 'act up' thing with a real goal to it was inspiring, and the same for black lives matter as it's actually saying something and exposing a real problem (even against a guest in a hotel in Portland Oregon recently). But seeing people with a lot of free time chanting and holding ugly signs about Obama does not make me want to see seriously stupid anti-Trump stunts in restaurants or wherever as progress. A lot of people will have to tally after however long Trump is in and hopefully learn and reflect, and I might hope see how they were manipulated over a long amount of time to be bumper sticker half-truth quoter revolutionaries, blaming, lashing out, all that junk. And I think we've seen just enough from their more motivated opposition that they can also be just as susceptible to flame fanners and turn into a mirror image of sorts. Reactionaries, revolutionaries (post the 1776 one which seemed pretty much wildly successful that no further ones are needed)... not helping their county. If you know say the National Enquirer is half-truth junk at best, even if it feels good or fun, why would you subject yourself to it? Is a Rush Limbaugh with his infotainment let's-find-scapegoats routine any different? "Why there's more trees in the United States Of America today than when the country was founded!" he thundered the first (and last) time I ever watched his show (the one with a wall of flag decorated books of his own), as in environazis are lying to you... now why would you pay attention after that, seriously? Oh, he manipulates and hates, blames and lashes out, shoves patriotic symbols on every surface, but I don't like those Clintons either so it's 'fun'? Fun to blame and hate and castigate large swaths of humanity for the mote in their eye you don't have? To me that's when the current fubar started, or else the weakening of the FCC regulations that opened a door for such modern Lord Haw Haws and Tokyo Roses. Regulations as simplistic job-killers and a redistribution of wealth conspiracy... or protection found to be needed from real experiences millions lived through? You won't know what you've got until it's gone, and I am quite sure Putin and other 'strong men' like him would love to take it from you, the U.S.A. was about something very much different from those people. Just knowing is doing something and this is the information age. Judge what sources are really reliable and not with a manipulative agenda and know and learn, it's the requirement of liberty. Democracy is not wrong, but it can be bumpy and not easy. The simple answers are usually the most transient... this is why sometimes you can see them moving from one extreme to another, once the Democrats were the pro-segregation and states' rights party, now it looks like a founding pillar of whatever neo pretends-to-be conservative 'movement'. Right now I know of only one kind of movement the U.S. needs, followed by a loud flush and a lot of relief. Here's hoping for a calmer 2019.
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Post by thwhtguardian on Dec 30, 2018 20:18:03 GMT -5
What is crap about it? O'Rourke consistently votes significantly to the right of the rest of the Democrats in Congress. People are too caught up on purity than someone who realistically can win and will work with people on the other side of the aisle. As Slam said it's not about purity, I'd gladly vote for a moderate Democrat...but not "Beto". We're talking about a guy who took in more many than any other guy in the House from big oil, and as such not surprisingly scoffs at the clean energy movement, and was conspicuously absent from many of the votes on the XL pipeline and was for drilling in the gulf. You know who else gives him a lot of money? Big banks. Yeah, those two things make him a big nope.
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Post by Hoosier X on Dec 30, 2018 21:25:39 GMT -5
People are too caught up on purity than someone who realistically can win and will work with people on the other side of the aisle. As Slam said it's not about purity, I'd gladly vote for a moderate Democrat...but not "Beto". We're talking about a guy who took in more many than any other guy in the House from big oil, and as such not surprisingly scoffs at the clean energy movement, and was conspicuously absent from many of the votes on the XL pipeline and was for drilling in the gulf. You know who else gives him a lot of money? Big banks. Yeah, those two things make him a big nope. I suspect nominating someone like Beto is a great way to get a repeat of 2016. NO THANK YOU!
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Post by thwhtguardian on Jan 7, 2019 10:49:53 GMT -5
So just so we have things straight: The President of the United States can say things like, "Grab them by their p@$#!." and call other soverien nations, "Sh!#-hole countries." and it's just "locker room talk" and nothing to be concerned with because "We elected him because he's real"
But a newly elected member of the House of Representatives says, "Impeach the Motherf@#$%!" and she's ,"dishonored herself and I think she dishonored her family." and her comments were, "highly disrespectful to the United States of America."
Nope I don't see any disconnect there.
Personally, I don't think our elected officials should be cursing live and in public as I think it just lowers the level of discourse. And no, I'm no Polly-Anna, I'm from Boston and see it as my almost ethnic right to casually drop f-bombs and words like 'tard and pissah like there's no tomorrow...but I'm not someone who's representing the nation on the world stage so the same standard doesn't apply to me, but if we're going to lower that standard for the President on one hand and dismiss criticism of his rhetoric with, "That's just Trump being Trump." then you can't mock outrage when some one in the other party is just as "real"
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Post by The Captain on Jan 7, 2019 12:12:06 GMT -5
So just so we have things straight: The President of the United States can say things like, "Grab them by their p@$#!." and call other soverien nations, "Sh!#-hole countries." and it's just "locker room talk" and nothing to be concerned with because "We elected him because he's real" Not a defense, but POTUS Donald J. Trump did not utter the first statement. Private Citizen and celebrity Donald J. Trump said it in 2005. As we hear time and time again, such as when a celebrity or politician is caught saying something that offends people, words have consequences. If she wants to talk like that, she has to be prepared for backlash, hypocritical or not, from folks who don't agree with her or who support her opponents. Of course there's a disconnect (and yes, I know you're being sarcastic), because the Republicans want womenfolk, particularly those who are young and/or of color, to be silent and not get all uppity and thinking they can have a say in how things are done. It doesn't fit the "way things have been done forever" and it is uncomfortable for Republican men to see non-docile women who think, act, and speak for themselves. I agree with you that our elected officials should comport themselves at a higher level than the general populace. That said, the rules have gone out the window under this administration, and any pearl-clutching from the right because the little Democrat Muslim girl called the POTUS a "motherf@#$er" is ridiculous. If you applaud Trump for being politically incorrect and "telling it like it is", then don't get your panties in a bunch when someone on the other side does it too. However, one thing that Rashida Tlaib, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, and their colleagues need to keep in mind is that Donald Trump has already laid claim to the low ground, so their baiting of him in his territory isn't going to end up well for them, because his position there is too solid. Maybe their "go low" rhetoric plays well in Detroit or Brooklyn with their constituents, but they need to remember that they are on the national stage now, and every word, every action, every thing they do is going to be scrutinized from Maui to Maine in the 24-7 news cycle. They are going to bring unnecessary heat on themselves and spend too much of their energy fighting the backlash instead of using it to push for the change they want in Washington and across the nation. As has been said, many times and in many different ways, don't ever wrestle a pig, because you end up filthy and the pig enjoys it.
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Post by beccabear67 on Jan 7, 2019 13:40:28 GMT -5
I can understand people letting off steam sometimes, especially when you are faced with the ridiculous opposite of reality covfefe masterpieces of Trump... my main worry is it escalating from the sometimes. As in, oh, this works, this is how you lead, I'll do more. Is that a reasonable fear? It doesn't lose me if Biden or whoever calls someone a name, but it can be small step to incitement of action by fanatics like even the chanting at someone in a restaurant... that's just junior high garbage and can backfire and be used by the other extreme to justify their us vs. them junk I think. So if he doesn't call this shutdown (while air safety people are not getting paid for a wall to stop zero terrorists caught coming in at the southern border) I guess we're left with covfefe's true meaning? Have a happy covfefe everyone, enjoy yourself, what a great turn out!
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Post by impulse on Jan 7, 2019 14:17:05 GMT -5
If anyone believes Trump or the Republicans clutching their pearls over this are actually outraged and not just play-acting for their base, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
Also, I did not coin this, and I do not want the baseline discourse to fall too far, but I had to chuckle and relate to someone posting the (paraphrased) following: A freshman Congresswoman saying mother f****er on her first day is the first time I have truly felt represented by any elected official in government.
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Post by The Captain on Jan 7, 2019 15:19:52 GMT -5
If anyone believes Trump or the Republicans clutching their pearls over this are actually outraged and not just play-acting for their base, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you. Also, I did not coin this, and I do not want the baseline discourse to fall too far, but I had to chuckle and relate to someone posting the (paraphrased) following: A freshman Congresswoman saying mother f****er on her first day is the first time I have truly felt represented by any elected official in government. Of course it's acting, just like Tliab dropping the f-bomb. Politicians pick their role when they start their career and they play it because it is why their constituents elected them. Folksy, hardass, moderate, revolutionary; they're just different parts in the grand theater that is politics.
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Post by The Captain on Jan 7, 2019 15:20:24 GMT -5
Stupid double post.
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Post by Slam_Bradley on Jan 7, 2019 21:05:06 GMT -5
I've been calling the Charlatan-in-Chief that for a number of years. Now it's all the rage. I want to be recognized as a trendsetter.
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Post by thwhtguardian on Jan 8, 2019 12:26:36 GMT -5
So just so we have things straight: The President of the United States can say things like, "Grab them by their p@$#!." and call other soverien nations, "Sh!#-hole countries." and it's just "locker room talk" and nothing to be concerned with because "We elected him because he's real" Not a defense, but POTUS Donald J. Trump did not utter the first statement. Private Citizen and celebrity Donald J. Trump said it in 2005. As we hear time and time again, such as when a celebrity or politician is caught saying something that offends people, words have consequences. If she wants to talk like that, she has to be prepared for backlash, hypocritical or not, from folks who don't agree with her or who support her opponents. Of course there's a disconnect (and yes, I know you're being sarcastic), because the Republicans want womenfolk, particularly those who are young and/or of color, to be silent and not get all uppity and thinking they can have a say in how things are done. It doesn't fit the "way things have been done forever" and it is uncomfortable for Republican men to see non-docile women who think, act, and speak for themselves. I agree with you that our elected officials should comport themselves at a higher level than the general populace. That said, the rules have gone out the window under this administration, and any pearl-clutching from the right because the little Democrat Muslim girl called the POTUS a "motherf@#$er" is ridiculous. If you applaud Trump for being politically incorrect and "telling it like it is", then don't get your panties in a bunch when someone on the other side does it too. However, one thing that Rashida Tlaib, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, and their colleagues need to keep in mind is that Donald Trump has already laid claim to the low ground, so their baiting of him in his territory isn't going to end up well for them, because his position there is too solid. Maybe their "go low" rhetoric plays well in Detroit or Brooklyn with their constituents, but they need to remember that they are on the national stage now, and every word, every action, every thing they do is going to be scrutinized from Maui to Maine in the 24-7 news cycle. They are going to bring unnecessary heat on themselves and spend too much of their energy fighting the backlash instead of using it to push for the change they want in Washington and across the nation. As has been said, many times and in many different ways, don't ever wrestle a pig, because you end up filthy and the pig enjoys it. If it's just hypocritical, then it's not really offensive or backlash...just foolishness...and I think that's something that just needs to be called out. If being "real" is something conservatives are okay with when it's their guy then they simply can't cry out against it when it comes from the other side and if they do they need to be slapped in the face with it.
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Post by impulse on Jan 8, 2019 12:36:23 GMT -5
I would argue pretty strongly that Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is not at all going for the low ground. She is just unphased by the usual play-acting "we have the vapors!!!" of the right trying to manufacturer issues. She doesnt' fall for it or even engage at all. Just laughs it off and makes a counter point. If Tlaib stays there, I could see her losing some credibility, but a single utterance in frustration is hardly a brand-ruining moment.
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Post by The Captain on Jan 8, 2019 13:49:06 GMT -5
I would argue pretty strongly that Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is not at all going for the low ground. She is just unphased by the usual play-acting "we have the vapors!!!" of the right trying to manufacturer issues. She doesnt' fall for it or even engage at all. Just laughs it off and makes a counter point. If Tlaib stays there, I could see her losing some credibility, but a single utterance in frustration is hardly a brand-ruining moment. My reason for bringing Ocasio-Cortez into the conversation wasn't because of anything she has done, but rather to include her in the group of folks who already have YUGE targets on their backs, and as such, are going to have everything they do and say scrutinized far more than the random new representative from, say, Kansas. She's an avowed Democratic Socialist, she's 29 years-old, she's a female, and her background is as a community organizer (and we all know how the Republicans treated the last high-profile community organizer who made the national stage). Starting with this idiotic business about her dancing video, I can see the Republican strategy with her is going to be to keep her busy with nonsense and hopefully frustrate her into doing or saying something they can really hammer her with on a substantial level. She may have been educated at a really good university, but she's also young and inexperienced, and the Republicans have people who have been at this game longer than she has been alive, and they play it much better than she can even conceive of. If it were me, I'd focus on distracting her and wearing her down, making her ineffective in her role and obscuring her message as she wastes time fighting back.
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