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Post by the4thpip on Aug 10, 2015 14:51:42 GMT -5
My wife and I were discussing the current slate of potentials on both sides of the aisle over coffee yesterday morning and came to the conclusion that we're probably not voting next year. It's such an uninspiring collection of entrenched insiders (Hilary Clinton, Joe Biden) and whackadoodles (Bernie Sanders, pretty much the entire Republican ensemble) that we just can't see taking the time to go out and cast a ballot that implies that we endorse one of these folks and their party's platform. If only Canada weren't so cold, I think I could probably convince her to move there at this point. Do we even know who the Reform Party candidate is gonna be yet? Edit: I am sure glad I looked up who their candidate was in 2012. Meet Andre Barnett.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2015 14:59:32 GMT -5
As far as the qualities of the GOP playing field, I'm not even concerned. I don't see them having a chance this election, at all. I said that about George W. Bush in 2000... He was an incumbent, and hadn't yet destroyed the Republican Party.
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Post by The Captain on Aug 10, 2015 15:02:06 GMT -5
From everything I've read and researched previously, Kasich does seem to align pretty well with most of my beliefs, outside of the social issues you mention. If he had any shot at all of being nominated, I'd be excited, but I have as much chance of waking up tomorrow morning between Kate Upton and Karen Gillen as Kasich does in getting the nod. That will leave my choice to be between Hillary and whichever lunatic manages to stir the Republicans into the biggest frenzy between now and then, and that is my "giant douche/turd sandwich" dilemma. But the only reason Kasich wouldn't have a shot would be because other people gave up on him and the process just as you intend to do. Don't you see the irony in this? No problems ever get solved, and no minds ever get changed, when folks judge one another One problem for me is that I can't vote in primaries here in PA, as I'm a registered independent. My wife could if he gets that far, but I'm afraid that the louder and more psychotic voices on the Republican side will drown out someone who is less psychotic like Kasich, even though he is far more reasonable than the others in many regards.
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shaxper
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Post by shaxper on Aug 10, 2015 15:02:23 GMT -5
I said that about George W. Bush in 2000... He was an incumbent, and hadn't yet destroyed the Republican Party. He was an incumbent in 2004. In 2000, he was a coddled son of a president who had no political experience, no successful business experience, no eloquence, no real ideas, and a slight criminal record.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2015 15:05:05 GMT -5
I've heard this criticism before, and I've honestly never understood it. What about Sanders is "whackadoodle"? I keep thinking folks are confusing him with Ross Perot. Maybe it was an unfair characterization, but I just can't get onboard with his Democratic Socialist views (which I completely understand are not your father's old-school USSR socialist views). He's just a little too far out there for me, and while he likes to talk a lot about how his brand of "socialism" works so well in countries like Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, he ignores the fact that those are much smaller, nearly homogeneous cultures with strong anti-immigrant and anti-Semitic attitudes, as well as very high taxes and a growing belief that their system is unsustainable as they continue to borrow money from the Chinese to prop up an increasingly-larger portion of the population that either cannot find work or refuses to do so. We borrow money from the Chinese too. Their standard of living is greater than ours. Does it matter that their money goes to taxes instead of medical bills? Also, the bulk of their tax burden would be abogve your tax bracket. They have a greater ratio of people in the upper middle class. Less multibillionaires. Believe it or not, hoarding tens of billions of dollars does not help the economy.
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shaxper
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Post by shaxper on Aug 10, 2015 15:49:08 GMT -5
But the only reason Kasich wouldn't have a shot would be because other people gave up on him and the process just as you intend to do. Don't you see the irony in this? No problems ever get solved, and no minds ever get changed, when folks judge one another One problem for me is that I can't vote in primaries here in PA, as I'm a registered independent. My wife could if he gets that far, but I'm afraid that the louder and more psychotic voices on the Republican side will drown out someone who is less psychotic like Kasich, even though he is far more reasonable than the others in many regards. Primaries tend to be driven by extremists who favor psychotics because not enough average people vote in them. Is it possible to register Republican now, ahead of 2016? You could always change your affiliation later, but, with a candidate for that party who generally aligns with your beliefs, why would you?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2015 16:31:57 GMT -5
his brand of "socialism" works so well in countries like Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, he ignores the fact that those are much smaller, nearly homogeneous cultures with strong anti-immigrant and anti-Semitic attitudes, as well as very high taxes and a growing belief that their system is unsustainable as they continue to borrow money from the Chinese to prop up an increasingly-larger portion of the population that either cannot find work or refuses to do so. All 3 of them have a higher GDP per person than the US; Norway has massive oil reserves and consequently is massively wealthy relative to its size. I don't know where you're getting the idea that their system is unsustainable - to the contrary, most of their populace buys into a fairly egalitarian high-tax / high benefit economy where the disparity between rich and poor is huuuugely less than you'd see in the US (or UK). There certainly are far-right groups in all 3 countries, and most of former-Eastern bloc Europe plus France, and to a lesser extent in the rest of Western Europe. The US also has armed far-right militias, the KKK and Trumpo the Clown talking about building a wall along its southern border.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2015 20:21:23 GMT -5
He was an incumbent, and hadn't yet destroyed the Republican Party. He was an incumbent in 2004. In 2000, he was a coddled son of a president who had no political experience, no successful business experience, no eloquence, no real ideas, and a slight criminal record. Ah, I had my dates off Yeah not surprised he won 2000 either though strictly because he was a legacy. I think he's the actual reason the idea of legacy political families have fallen out of favor. I mean I know the Kennedy's had their critics, but that was specific to that family, and not at the idea of there being a political family. I think in 2000 people actually thought someone raised in the field of national politics would be better suited. Nowadays though, good luck getting that sentiment across. I think that is thanks to his dismal failure. But then again, Jeb is giving it a good run among the candidates with an actual shot of getting the nomination.
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Post by thwhtguardian on Aug 10, 2015 20:56:35 GMT -5
Best comment on trump I've ever seen:
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2015 21:39:03 GMT -5
Alas, if I had a buck for every time I've read the GOP was staring extinction in the face (starting in my case with the post-Watergate election of 1976) ... I'd have a tidy little stack of singles. As long as reactionaries exist, the Republican Party will be in solid shape, & very likely it will continue to dominate my somewhat beloved (in FB lingo, "it's complicated") but hopelessly backwards South.
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Post by thwhtguardian on Aug 10, 2015 21:43:05 GMT -5
True but that doesn't make it any less funny
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Post by spoon on Aug 10, 2015 22:14:27 GMT -5
I've heard this criticism before, and I've honestly never understood it. What about Sanders is "whackadoodle"? I keep thinking folks are confusing him with Ross Perot. Maybe it was an unfair characterization, but I just can't get onboard with his Democratic Socialist views (which I completely understand are not your father's old-school USSR socialist views). He's just a little too far out there for me, and while he likes to talk a lot about how his brand of "socialism" works so well in countries like Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, he ignores the fact that those are much smaller, nearly homogeneous cultures with strong anti-immigrant and anti-Semitic attitudes, as well as very high taxes and a growing belief that their system is unsustainable as they continue to borrow money from the Chinese to prop up an increasingly-larger portion of the population that either cannot find work or refuses to do so. I see a couple of folks have already taken up the mantle of defending the Scandinavian nations, but I need to chime in as well. This characterization is about as far from the truth as you can get. I'd be extremely skeptical about whoever gave you this false information. Just about the only thing this description gets right is that the populations of the Scandinavian countries are small relative to the U.S. (and much of Western Europe). In the past Scandinavian countries might not have been diverse, but that's rapidly changing. For instance, Oslo is one of Europe's fastest growing cities, thanks mostly to immigration. As I mentioned in Meanwhile, I went to Denmark in May. While not nearly as diverse as New Jersey where I live, I saw people who appeared to be East Asian, Middle Eastern, and black. That ties into the next point. I get the impression that Scandinavian is pretty welcoming to immigrants. They are some of the major destination points for immigrants or refugees from places like Somalia, Iraq, and Syria. And the accusation of anti-Semitism is particular irksome given that Denmark and Sweden are jointly responsible for probably the greatest effort to save Jews from the Holocaust. During World War II, Germany was invaded and occupied by Germany. The Danes got wind of the timing of the planning deportation of Danish Jews to concentration camps. The Danish people launched a massive, quick plane to secret evacuate Danish Jews. A massive flotilla of civilian boats helped Danish Jew to neutral Sweden, where they were out of reach of the Germans. Because of this, Danish Holocaust deaths were almost zero. The only growing belief in unsustainability sounds like it came from conservative website that angry that the success of Scandinavia devastates their economic theories. Rather than being massively in debt to China, the Scandinavia countries are among the least indebted countries in all of Europe (see, for example, this map: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt#/media/File:Eurostat_public_debt_GDP.png). It's true that Scandinavian countries have higher taxes, but I think it's easy to make the case that this investment is paying off. Investing in the education and health of your population makes good economic sense and leads to more success. Denmark has been rated the happiest country on Earth. It gets a huge part of its energy from renewable wind power. Granted I was only in Denmark for 5 days, but I think I saw one police car that whole time.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2015 22:28:35 GMT -5
Alas, if I had a buck for every time I've read the GOP was staring extinction in the face (starting in my case with the post-Watergate election of 1976) ... I'd have a tidy little stack of singles. As long as reactionaries exist, the Republican Party will be in solid shape, & very likely it will continue to dominate my somewhat beloved (in FB lingo, "it's complicated") but hopelessly backwards South. The south isn't going to get them. In the whitehouse, and with anti gerrymandering laws being upheld in Arizona, along with the significant demographic change that has taken place over the past few decades, I can see that if they do not concede on several key social issues they will no longer win elections. Their fiscal policy, as wrong as it is, still has plenty of support among multiple demographics though.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2015 8:24:32 GMT -5
One hopes. The hopelessly backwards enclaves like the entirety (typing off the top of my head; there may actually be a couple of oases, though I doubt it) of the South & some of the more paranoid western states seem to fall far short of boasting enough electoral votes to have a major impact on the presidential results. I'm far from a fan of the Electoral College (it's a major reason I haven't bothered to register to vote here nearly 14 years after moving here --as I've noted elsewhere, I could've voted 100,000 times in the last several elections & had no effect whatsoever on Alabama's place on the side of hateful ignorance), but I guess it has its uses.
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Post by Prince Hal on Aug 11, 2015 9:36:01 GMT -5
I also remember the death of the GOP proclaimed in the wake of Watergate.
Of course, I blame air conditioning for allowing vast swaths of the South and Southwest to be made habitable for the old, the cranky, and the backward. Making the tropical and desert regions of the country more livable for Northerners whose political opinions were reactionary meant that they could move near their like-minded friends and increase the influence the various nether regions (sorry, Dan) had on the Electoral College.
For example...
Florida in 1964: 14 EC votes; in 2012: 29. Texas: 25 up to 38. Arizona: 5 up to 11. Georgia 12 up to 16.
Even with minor losses in four southern states (1 each in Mississippi, Kentucky, and Alabama; 2 in Louisiana and Missouri), the Confederacy, including Arizona, picked up 35 EC votes. That's a ton, especially in a winner-take-all contest.
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