shaxper
CCF Site Custodian
Posts: 22,701
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Post by shaxper on Jan 27, 2015 22:44:12 GMT -5
I just found out today that the Nu52 Batman #1 from 2011 is now selling for over a hundred dollars on ebay. My first thought was to laugh, pull out my copy, and post that sucker for sale, but then I paused. Prior to the launch of the Nu 52, comic sales were at an all time low. From about 2000 to 2011, average print runs were in the 20,000 to 30,000 range, making them incredibly scarce by the standards of any other decade in comics. Additionally, new comics from the previous decade had never become collectible, so I know many fans in the 2000s never even bothered to bag and board their books. A lot of copies were inevitably ruined in this manner. So, it occurs to me now, if collectors today start looking to collect issues from that time period, demand could end up far exceeding supply. A lot of the books published in that time period were forgettable, but there will always be a few first appearances that end up mattering and, in the case of Batman #1, it launched a continuity that is immensely successful today. So what are your thoughts on books from the 2000 to 2011 era? Do you think they have the potential to be worth money in the long run, do you think there were any runs or issues that might prove particularly notable down the line and, most importantly, do you think I should sell that Batman #1?  |
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Post by thwhtguardian on Jan 27, 2015 23:06:49 GMT -5
I actually sold mine for a little Christmas money just last month for that much and I don't feel too bad about it. Although print runs aren't huge with the current collector mentality most of these kinds of "key" issues will survive for a good while, so I don't think I'm going to kick myself later on. I had a similar situation with Amazing Spider-Man Vol.2 #1 from 1999; in the early 2000's you couldn't touch that book for under 100 bucks but now you'd probably only get like 30 or 40 bucks and the variants which were once astronomical are now like 100.
They're good in the short term due to rampant speculation but because nearly all of us who read now take pretty good care of our collections these books survive in large numbers and good quality so the prices tend to drop as they age.
Will Batman #1 perhaps climb higher? Probably, but probably not by much more.
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Post by earl on Jan 27, 2015 23:23:54 GMT -5
The 'collector' price speculation that I find interesting is more with trade paperbacks and hard covers. There are odd trades out there sell for way more than the actual issues. Then there are others that are reprints of comics that have been reprinted in multiple ways, but scarcity has driven the secondary price of a certain release up to mad amounts at least to sell. It is hard to know if they are actually getting anywhere near those amounts for sell, but maybe there are people that will pay to finish a series.
Examples?
Essential Thor Vol. 4
Early Nightwing Trades
Out of Print Marvel Omnibuses
Jim Aparo Batman Vol. 1
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2015 23:35:45 GMT -5
I think there are some solid books from the decade that will gain and hold value, but there are some that will be a roller coaster and some that will be fool's gold. So pretty much the same as any decade.
As I have said elsewhere, it comes down to demand not scarcity. There are scarce comics with little to no value because no one wants them.
Demand for the individual issues is different now than it has been before though, because of trades, later printings, digital offerings, movie speculation bumps and an emphasis among fandom on books that "matter" and how that will affect long term demand if publishers reboot again, alter continuity etc. with events (Secret Wars and Convergence looming and hinting at universe wide continuity changes affecting which books matter may sway some fickle fans and shift demand curves one way or the other for older books).
In the past books like Amazing Spidey 298 and 300 rode a roller coaster, prices soared initially, leveled off and even fell a bit in the late 90s as demand for the books tailed off, but then a renewed wave of demand as the books became old enough for the nostalgia wave to bring new people back to seeking the books of their youth kicked in and prices began to rise again as these are once again hot commodities. I think the Batman #1 of 2011 is likely to have a similar trajectory. It is hot now, demand is high (heck I got $10 in trade from Lonestar last year for a 3rd printing not a 1st, so demand for it in all versions is pretty high right now), but I suspect it will level off and taper off within 2-3 years and prices will drop a bit, then about 5-10 years after that the nostalgia wave will kick in and give the book a bump with renewed interest (if there is still a back issue market, who knows what kind of changes to the medium will be wrought in the new 10-12 years overall). There are no guarantees though.
Who knows though. Batman books will not get a movie bump (they have already had that so there aren't previously unmined first appearances to grab like there was for Rocket, Thanos, Star Lord, Nebula, etc. and we know there are multiple printings and trade collections of Batman #1 already out there and not impacting the demand for the first print much, but there are some doubts (Justice League #1 of the new52 was selling for upwards of $200 a copy on ebay in the days after its release because it was "sold out" and the first new52 book (we were doing a show the weekend afterwards in Nov. 2011 and there was one dealer who had ordered extra just to sell at the show and was moving them at $75 a pop with little resistance) and now you can get a first print for $12-15 so there is some danger of the speculator bubble on these books.
The question to sell or not sell comes down to this-do you think people will have more interest in the book now or down the road? If now, sell while the demand is there. If later, wait and see, but it is a roll of the dice. Is there something you want and could get for the $100 now that makes it worth selling now or would you be content to risk getting stuck with book to see if you can get more later? Personally I would sell while the iron is hot and the demand is there. The supply won't vary much, the demand will. But don't sell if you will not be content with what you get now if it goes up later. Only sell if you are at peace with selling now no matter what happens in the future.
-M
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Post by pinkfloydsound17 on Jan 27, 2015 23:58:30 GMT -5
I think the reason comics are heating up is because of the movies and TV shows partially. Yet while the early 90's was all about grabbing up first issues and variants, now it seems more about first appearances of pretty much any and every character. Perhaps in the very distant future 2000s stuff will go up but I have my doubts personally.
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Post by Action Ace on Jan 27, 2015 23:58:47 GMT -5
There's always the Walking Dead style lottery ticket.
Speaking of Kirkman, my early issues of Invincible seem to be going for some serious coin these days. My first issue of Tech Jacket even seems to be worth money.
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Post by Randle-El on Jan 28, 2015 0:49:59 GMT -5
The availability of digital and trade collections will probably prevent most single issues from reaching sky high prices, aside from certain key issues or novelty covers. That era is fairly well covered by both territories, as that is when writing for the trade really took off. Also, digital back issues tend to be pretty easy to find for a lot books from the 21st century... it's when you get further into the past the holes start to show up.
This post echoes a thought I had posted a while back about the collectibility of paper comics if/when digital replaces print as the preferred medium for releasing single issue, monthly comics -- and I'm convinced it's more of an "when" than an "if".
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Post by wildfire2099 on Jan 28, 2015 0:56:31 GMT -5
I don't think that's true... Walking Dead could be the most re-printed story ever, with all the different trade versions, $1 additions, Famous First, etc, yet #1 is still crazy (granted, that's the late 90s).
I agree it's kinda strange that some trades and collections are suddenly valuable, but that just goes to show that collectors today have different priorities that in the old days... or perhaps it's just that collections didn't exist before.
I've often thought the low print runs of some modern stuff could lead to weird things being valuable... if demand ever goes up. I'm not sure it will though... while there are far fewer comics printed, those that are are far less likely to end up in the trash than in the old days.
As far as the original question, I think New 52 Batman #1 will be valuable for as long as the New 52 is around... when DC next re-boots, it'll probably drop.
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Post by Reptisaurus! on Jan 28, 2015 0:57:28 GMT -5
Well, not really Randal, 'cause Batman # 1 is going for big bucks.
But I'm saying Sell, Quickly. It was the # 1 best selling book of the month - with far, far more than the average 25,000-ish print run of a mainstream superhero book published - and barring a huge influx of superhero comic collectors there should theoretically be enough copies to satisfy demand. It's not like it's the Walking Dead (or even Omac! or Squirrel Girl!) Once a new Batman creative team takes over - or people decide to stop sittin' on their copies - it'll probably drop in value.
Meanwhile, I'm counting on my three copies of Squirrel Girl # 1 to put my chidren and grandchildren through college. THAT is a safe bet.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 1:04:12 GMT -5
I don't think that's true... Walking Dead could be the most re-printed story ever, with all the different trade versions, $1 additions, Famous First, etc, yet #1 is still crazy (granted, that's the late 90s). I agree it's kinda strange that some trades and collections are suddenly valuable, but that just goes to show that collectors today have different priorities that in the old days... or perhaps it's just that collections didn't exist before. I've often thought the low print runs of some modern stuff could lead to weird things being valuable... if demand ever goes up. I'm not sure it will though... while there are far fewer comics printed, those that are are far less likely to end up in the trash than in the old days. As far as the original question, I think New 52 Batman #1 will be valuable for as long as the New 52 is around... when DC next re-boots, it'll probably drop. The big question with Walking Dead #1 is will it drop in price when the show goes off the air and a new audience to fuel demand is no longer being created. I know 2 dealers who recently put high grade CGC copies up for sale (one a 9.2 one an 8.5) and it took both books nearly a week to get their first bid and both went for close to the minimum asking price (which was quite high admittedly), but neither garnered a ton of bids/interest, so I think questioning how long demand will fuel the current prices on that book despite the low print run is a legitimate question. I don't see it ever becoming a dog seller worth nothing, but I could see it's price tag losing as much a quarter to a third of its current value once the gravy train of demand in the form of the TV show goes off the air... -M |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 2:18:02 GMT -5
Print runs are definitely lower, but I doubt bagging and boarding is any less common. Some shops don't even charge for bags and boards. I think the smaller pool of comic consumers are made up more of two parties, compulsive collectors who would want everything pristine regardless of it's potential value, and speculators. Back in the 90's and before, there were a LOT of kids. I don't think bagging and boarding, or at the least boarding, became common until the mid 80's at all, and even then it was somewhat rare. Because comics weren't limited to the direct market, and the kids who bought their comics off the bottom shelf of the magazine rack at 7-11 didn't even know bags, boards, and longboxes existed.
I knew they existed, but thought they were some exclusive product strictly for comic stores. I bought my first longbox in 2008. But with the internet and everything it becomes much easier to share information about comics and collecting. No more need for conventions and fanzines and after hours at the LCS, which may or may not even exist in your town. Nowadays if you like Batman comics you'll pretty much know about comic preservation supplies. Choosing to use it is another thing, but the people who choose to spend five bucks on a 22 page modern are probably splurging the extra 5 cents for a bag.
So I think modern comics are far more likely to remain in high grade than any previous era, including the speculator driven 90's. Also, a lot of those foil covers didn't survive well even if you did bag and board them. All mine got hairline scratches all over them from being in a bag, to the point that the foil was worn through in spots in some cases.
Future value is as much a toss up today as it ever was. When I discover a modern comic I have is worth money I usually dump it. And haven't regretted it yet. In fact, kind of wishing I dumped Stumptown when it was hot.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2015 2:37:09 GMT -5
I think that issue of Batman will reach one billion dollars eventually.
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Post by crazyoldhermit on Jan 28, 2015 3:13:16 GMT -5
It's not just #1. Issues from the first year, while not big earners, do sell in the $10-30 range. I've got a complete set save for #6 and I'm having a hard time working up the guts to buy it.
In the long run I think the price will fall off. I believe the current price is due to scarcity: DC sold 188,000 of the things and they were all snapped up. When the trade came out some got sold but those that weren't sold are still in collections. The number of copies out there for sale is minute compared to the number that they sold so the copies out there get expensive. When the Snyder/Capullo run ends I'm sure we'll see a glut of complete sets up for sale and that will drop the value.
I was originally collecting this series to bind it but when I found out how valuable it is I had to rethink things. I wanna sell but I don't know when and I don't know if I should get #6 first.
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Crimebuster
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Post by Crimebuster on Jan 28, 2015 7:35:31 GMT -5
Some books from the 2000's I do think have growth potential and will keep their value due to small print runs. There are some indie books in particular that have amazingly small print runs, like Walking Dead. Even some mainstream books; I don't expect Archie stuff to ever get hot, but the major Archie titles were selling in the 10-20k range for an entire decade or more, with most of those copies being sold on the newsstand to kids rather than collectors. It's like pulling teeth to put together a run of Archie or Jughead from the 2000's.
I do think some books that have already reached high prices are in for a fall, though. Batman #1 is silly to me. As was mentioned, it sold 188k copies, far more than most books of the past 15 years. There are plenty of copies out there. Walking Dead I think is also due for a fall when the TV show goes off the air, simply because it is so expensive now; it will always be worth money thanks to the low print run, but I can see it settling back to maybe half its current value once the show is off the air.
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Post by paulie on Jan 28, 2015 10:32:53 GMT -5
Doug Sulipa, of Doug's Comic World fame, has written extensively about how the low print runs from the 1990s on make a lot of comics scarce. That's all well and good. But is there demand?
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