They do if they can't make money off of it. FF didn't even win it's opening weekend in the US. It won't make it's money back in the domestic box office, let alone all the marketing. The PR hit form Josh Trank's dissatisfaction will cost them opportunities to work with other people. None of the FF movies have made them very much money. Marvel Studios can take Z-list characters and succeed with them because Marvel Studios has earned that in the marketplace, talent wants to work with them and they have delivered an enjoyable experience with every movie the Studio has made. People trust the brand. Fox has earned neither the trust of talent or the audience and has shown that have problems turning these properties into profitable ventures. Daredevil failed with Fox. It succeeded with Marvel Studios at Netflix. Elektra failed at Fox. No one cared about Elektra after the movie. Marvel Studios has Elektra in the works as part of the DD Netflix show. FF has failed 3 times with Fox. They have been 50/50 with the X-Men films, some have been hits early on, then they had a string of disappointing box office results with the franchise. The last 2 have turned it around again, but they do not perform at the levels Marvel Studios offerings do.

At some point the suits at Fox are going to start doing cost benefit analysis on these properties. The IP rights only do them good if it turns into profit and builds goodwill with the audience and the talent so they can exploit it and build their brand. So far the FF has been counterproductive to that. To the point where they could not do something like Ant-Man or Guardians that no one knows about and make it a success. What characters in the FF milieu can stand on their own and work for Fox to make something that makes hem money and builds their brand? At some point someone who greenlights these project s is going to ask-should we invest the $$ into another potential flop or make a different movie outside the super-hero genre and outside this IP that will a) make us more money, b) build our brand better c) draw talent to our studio who have ideas they want to turn into marketable films for us. Do we keep mining a well in the FF that has proven dry for us, or use our resources elsewhere to make something that will work for us. I don't think it will be an active decision to give it back to Marvel but a series of choices to put resources to use elsewhere to the benefit of the studio. That's the decision they made with Daredevil, they had a movie in the works and could have retained the rights, but decided they were better off spending the money elsewhere and let the rights lapse. Nothing in the FF box office performance has shown them that they can continue to mine this for their own benefit. I don't see another FF movie getting greenlighted. They already took the sequel's release date and gave it to another franchise (The Deadpool sequel and that movie hasn't even been released yet) which says they have reservations about doing another anytime soon. They have a five year window I think (iirc) to use the rights or lose them, so the clock will start next year. 3 years of movies are already planned out and they took the sequel out of that 3 year window, so that leaves a 2 year window left. Where will the box office for super-hero movies be in 3 years? Will the genre be played out? They may delay to see and then decide not to do something. They might look at making some money back by selling the rights back to Marvel. They might try again in 3 years which would likely mean another reboot not a sequel. Of the three, I see that latter as the least likely coming out of the aftermath of this FF movie bombing. They will of course wait to see what they make internationally (it's not doing well there either) and through on demand and DVD/Blu-Ray sales before making a final decision, but that segment of the revenue stream is nowhere near what it was 5-10 years ago, so it's not going to make a huge difference in the bottom line.

Everyone thinks super-hero movies are license to print money after the success of the Batman trilogy and the Marvel Studios offerings, but that's not the case. Man of Steel's box office underperfromed. It did well enough to keep the DC franchise going, but they added Batman tot he mix for the sequel to try to prop up the box office this time. FF bombed. The X-Men movies are bouncing back but still not doing the kind of box office the first 2 X-movies did. Good super-hero movies still sell. People associate good super-hero movies with Marvel Studios, not Fox (and not Warner at this point). Marvel has built their brand through their successes. There is little branc confusion in the market between MArvel Studios and Fox, Sony or Warner Brothers. People are savvy enough to know brands.

The suits at Fox will have no emotional attachment to the properties. They won't keep the rights because "hey man it's the FF and Lee Kirby," that's not even part of their thought process. They will be cold and calculating in the decision. Will this make us money and build our brand or will it lose us money and hurt our brand? They will look at actual numbers not pie in the sky hopes. And the numbers the FF rights have given them since they got them are not that good.

I am not sure they will get rid of the rights, but I am sure it is a distinct possibility and that option is on the table being discussed.

-M